Satgen 612   Global Climate Watch by GM4IHJ  (BID SGEN612) 2000-12-16

We are presently being deluged by a vast amount of conflicting
information about the future of our worlds climate. A topic perhaps
best encompassed by the question " Global Warming, How, When, What
proof ? The only clear thing emerging from the various proposals
presently being aired is " that they cannot all be right".So what can
your space oriented radio amateur do, to build up any sort of
informed opinion ?

The first point for this observer was to look for obvious visual
evidence, and in this respect the NOAA weather satellites are perhaps
the best indicators. From a Scottish vantage point , it has been
possible to record year on year data compiled by watching for the
dates of the comings and goings of the sea ice at excellent marker
locations such as Davis Strait, Svalbard and the White Sea. From
which it has not been difficult to see that things are getting warmer
although not all sites show quite the same pattern.

Most specialists seem to agree that changes in the extent and
thickness of polar sea ice , can alter ocean current circulation
patterns and thereby disturb weather conditions on adjacent
continental shores. It is therefore interesting that backing up the
NOAA picture data is a flood of newly released data gathered by
nuclear submarine transits under the north polar ice cap, using
upward looking echo sounders to measure ice thickness. Data taken
between 1958 and 1996 reveals a gradually reducing thickness after
the 1970s from a mean of about 3.1m to one at present of 1.8m . A
situation confirmed in a very practical way this last year 2000
summer by the transit of the Northwest passage by the Royal Canadian
Mounted Police Patrol vessel St Roch II.

Southern hemisphere stations may not be able to access NOAA
satellites as they pass the south pole. But some may be able to get
pictures of ice conditions as the satellite overflies their side of
the Antarctic Continent and adjacent seas. Though ice specialist do
warn that the less land locked southern seas present a far from
easily read source of ice coverage data.

No doubt the pundits will say it is not just a case of simple ice and
snow data. But there is other data from quite a different space
source . Whereby anyone monitoring the gradual rise in solar wind
levels this last century can see a steady near linear rise, although
this rise is by no means obvious in the much more variable levels of
maximumum sun spot numbers at the peak of each successive solar
cycle. Certainly the higher solar wind levels appear to have had some
effect on the level of HF satellite DX. Though here it can be
suggested that this is more a case of improved operator expertise
rather than changing ionospheric conditions. However once again other
data points to the rise in solar wind having an effect. Noting that
increased solar wind, reduces cosmic ray penetration of the
heliosphere. Less cosmic rays = less ionospheric ionisation = less
cloud formation = higher surface temperatures. A sequence confirmed
by oxygen and berillium (cosmic ray derived) isotope levels, in air 
trapped in polar ice cores .