Satgen580  A Dearth of Solar Flux  by GM4IHJ  (BID SGEN580) 2000-05-06

With the present level of solar flux , hovering in the 150s, the
lowest it has been for 3 months. It is begining to seem clear, that
after the two previous high solar cycle peaks around 1979 and 1989,
this latest cycle may not be going to match their potential for
satellite and terrestrial DX.

Some stations in Europe, at lower latitudes than Scotlands 56N, have
had excellent 6m openings across the equator. But only one day in the
last 6 months, has ever hinted at TEDX to Scotland, with a brief
flurry of 48.25 MHz E2 Southern African TV.

Now as we move out of the northern hemisphere winter , with its
optimum F2 conditions. We cannot expect much until September/October
2000, when good times may resume . If indeed they return at all this
cycle, as perhaps we slide down off the solar cycle peak before then.

So what has this relatively subdued solar cycle peak actually produced
? Checking the log at IHJ suggests quite a lot has happened ,
particularly with RS13 sub horizon. But very little of it has produced
good sub horizon DX QSOs. Even in solar flux lows of the past few
months , the early evening UTC orbits monitored from Scotland, have
regularly featured sub horizon reception in Scotland when RS13 was
overflying the Antarctic ice cap. Suddenly after long periods of
nothing heard, despite the sub satellite point being deep into the
night side of the earth. RS13 would come up as it began to overfly the
ice cap , only to disappear 5 or 10 minutes later as it left the ice
cap and headed back north. Please note this was not antipodeal
reception. Reception fron RS13 overhead or near the Scottish antipodes
(184W 56S) has been very rare indeed. But almost every orbit passing
near side or far side of the south rotation pole sent signals up to
Scotland -WHEN SCOTLAND WAS ON THE SUNLIT SIDE OF THE EARTH , provided
the solar flux was 200 or above. While on days when the flux dropped
to the 170s only the orbits in the Scottish early evening UTC produced
Antarctic signals. 

Most tantalising of all. Only one orbit in a hundred over the
antarctic continued to produce reception in Scotland as it approach
Australia from the south. While even fewer orbits produced Scottish
reception as the satellite approached New Zealand, and all that did
get near either Australia or New Zealand produced signals received
with very broad diffusion often 100 Hz or more in width. Though
experimenting with filters could sometimes produce reasonable morse
copy.

Not that any qsos have resulted from this , despite a regular search.
Noting that winter daylight in Scotland 1000 to 1530 utc , is
concurrent with very unsociable hours in Australia and New Zealand.
Around the rest of the world plenty of sub horizon satellite DX has
been apparent from Scotland .But only when the solar flux was above
200 units. Below that level of flux only the brief south polar passes
have featured in the station log, so far.