Satgen360 Jianbing - Artificial Meteor ? by GM4IHJ 17th Feb 96 The Chinese spy satellite Jianbing ( FWS-1 Fanhui Shi Weixing), will probably enter the atmosphere and burn up , sometime in March 1996. It has a curious history , and it could produce a dramatic finale. The Chinese began launching photo reconnaissance satellites in 1975. These were of the FSW-0 series which took pictures on film, which had to be parachuted back to earth after just 3 or 5 days in space. A procedure which is quite different from the American Keyhole 11 spysats which transmit their pictures back to earth by digital radio, and can stay on task for a year or two. By 1987 the Chinese FSW-1 series began staying in orbit for 8 days before they fired their rocket to send the film capsule back to earth. Jianbing was the 5th one of this series, but unlike the rest it did not come back to earth when ordered to do so. Jianbing launched on 8th Oct 93 into an 89.6 minute orbit. On 16th Oct, the capsuls detached and the rocket fired. But instead of going down into the atmosphere for parachute re entry over China, it went in entirely the opposite drrection assuming an 118 minute orbit period with its low point perigee at 179 kms and its high point apogee at 3024 kms. Since then each time the 1 ton capsule has gone through its orbit low point in the atmosphere it has slowed down slightly, so that it could not climb back to the same apogee high point, and by Dec 95 the high point had reduced to 1004 kms. A change which also reduced the orbit period to 96 minutes. Clearly Jianbing was approaching minimum orbit duration of less than 89 minutes, where no satellite can remain in earth orbit. As this is being written on 13 Feb 96 the period is down to 92 minutes and falling fast , so it appdars unlikely that Jianbing can stay in orbit much later than the 18th of March approximately. Where will its perigee low point be then on perhaps its last orbit ? Very rough extrapolation suggests it will be over Latitude 56N, where one important piece of territory called Scotland can be found. However the re entry could occur at any Longitude around the 56th parallel of latitude depending on the time of day of re entry. Even more obscure, is the question of how it will re enter ? It is designed to be rocket fired into the atmosphere at a descent angle which is not too steep or it will burn up partially, and not too shallow an angle or it will bounce several times like a flat stone skimmed across the surface of a lake. But this is not a designed re entry. The re entry angle is unpredictable , so the satellites behaviour is not predictable. It has parachutes, Will these survive a steep fiery re entry, or will it crash down at full speed, with perhaps serious consequences, if it falls onto a an inhabited area? The odds are that it will come down in the sea, but only two things are certain. Firstly it should produce a fiery type meteor trail as it descends, and, secondly if its parachutes do work and it comes down almost unharmed, there will be lots of CIA, MI5 and KGB types anxious to study its pictures. So if it lands in your back garden, stake your claim to it immediately. Accept no offers for it and give no interviews , until you are clear as to the likely highest bid.