Satgen 455  The Future + or - P3D   by GM4IHJ  (BID SGEN455)  13Dec97

With ten metres opening up as solar flux begins to climb, there is
some interesting DX reception of the mode A satellites and the
Japanese LEO sats continue to provide some useful contacts on the more
difficult high doppler mode J links. In addition Oscar 10 is operating
again , albeit with considerable 50Hz FMing on the beacon when
alligators over drive it. But we clearly have a while to wait before
anything firm appears about the Phase 3D satellite , and, the recent
letter from Amsat NA asking for funds ,gives clear warning of the debt
mountain faced by Amsat, posing questions which need to be asked.

These questions which must be asked , concern what sort of orbit will
Phase3D be able to achieve, if and when a launch does materialise.
Noting that it is now much much heavier than it was 6 months ago,
consequent on the massive structural changes which were required to
meet the revised Ariane 500 series thrust/acceleration regime. Perhaps
sentencing P3D to a much lower inclination orbit than planned. Leaving
it prey to high levels of radiation , such as those which nearly
totally crippled Oscar Ten, and markedly shortened its useful life.

Equally important for Amsats future, the very large overspend on P3D,
must mean that no other satellites will come from that source for a
very long time. So what ever Amsat does in future, there clearly must
be a policy which does not lead to a repeat of the present situation.
This policy should include :-
a. Tight financial control. If NASA has to go cheap and simple , Amsat
   has even more reason to do so.
b. Never again put all the eggs in one basket. Committing so much time
   effort and expenditure to the vagaries of launch opportunities and
   launch accidents, is simply asking for trouble.
c. Avoid over complexity. The basic need is for simple analog
   transponders. Universities build more than enough digital clones.
   Why build more, further straining Amsats limited cash and
   facilities. Equally important we should avoid fitting units for
   minority user, such as cameras. These are totally superfluous and
   under used. Noting that there are already dozens of earth
   observation and weather satellites already open to amateur users,
   and providing better pictures than anything ever flown by Amsat.
d. Amsat cash (when we have some), should in future be used to pay for
   simple cheap straight forward satellites. Avoiding the notion that
   Amsats subscribers pay for a platform on which X, Y and Z, orbits
   their not always successful, latest untried gadget or, several
   times failed digital system.

It is appreciated that the above is a very hard critique of Amsats
recent past. The views expressed are solely those of this author
GM4IHJ. But recent mail to GM4IHJ asking him to speak out on these
subjects confirms that he is by no means alone in thinking that things
have reached a point, where a reversion to simple pay for it as you go
satellites, is essential. This mail also strongly suggests that if we
do not learn the lessons of the recent past , Amsat subscriptions and
membership numbers will dry up, and we may not have a future to go to