Satgen 447  Amsat Problems   by GM4IHJ   (BID SGEN44&)      18 Oct 97

These are indeed traumatic times for Amateur satellite operators. In a
remarkably short period of time, more than half of the useful analog
satellites have, for one reason or another , ceased to operate. While
in addition , there is great uncertainty associated with the now
complete, but launch less Phase 3D. It is difficult to see a way out
of this black hole. In particular . With no clear launch date in sight
for P3D. Amsat is faced with a very costly operation to store and
maintain the satellite, at a time when a large overspend has already
been incurred in the final period of the P3D building programme.

Several important questions , arise immediately :-

What is the exact financial position ? How badly hit are Amsat funds,
and how far are they mortgaged into the future ? How long is it likely
to be before Amsat can contemplate anything beyond P3D?. Assuming a
worst case of no P3D launch for years.

In the event of a long delay before P3D can be launched. Can any
individual units in P3D be utilized in other less complex satellites ,
which have a greater chance of obtaining a timely launch ?
Indeed , is this the end for Amsat of the " all the eggs in one
basket approach"? Would it not be better , safer, to plan for future
satellites which do not hazard the work , dedication and subscriptions
of years, on the fortunes of one big launch?

How can we help our Russian friends continue to build their enormously
popular satellites? So important to beginners = Amsats future.

Colleges etc seem ever ready to launch more and more digital clones.
Should Amsat concentrate in future on supplying the analog satellites 
so many members use, and which are the entry route for newcomers,
without whom Amsat has no future. An Oscar 7B would be very welcome

It is appreciated that the above poses some very hard questions .
Apologies and heartfelt sympathy is offered to all who have worked so
hard and subscribed so much to P3D. But life and amateur radio , goes
on. Certainly we are likely to be financially restricted for years. So
think small , and safety first ,is our only way forward. Noting that
aside from the totally unforeseen way in which P3D has stalled, 3
other recent amateur satellite launches have failed, and even the
NASA/commercial side is doing no better. With 75 million dollar LEOsat
Lewis having recently failed to give even one useful day in orbit.

So apologies to all. Attack the messenger if you must. But please lets
debate these questions properly. Seen from a European perspective
amateur satellite operating numbers have been falling for several
years. In the long term we need a balanced program of satellites of
proven usefulness, or , we may soon find that from being a sizeable
minority in Amateur radio , we have become an endangered species.