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Help with ISS KEPS?

I need some help solving a quandary I've run into.

An ISS school contact is scheduled for 18:23 UTC on
9/22/06 at 32 deg elevation for the school in Crete, IL.
Heavens-above.com agrees that such a pass exists and
that it should be a 51 degree pass for my QTH of Bowling Green,
KY (37N 86.45W).

However, my Orbitron predictions show ISS passes at 17:02 and
18:39 UTC. Clearly, something is out of phase here. I have tried
using ISS KEPS from the AMSAT site, from Space-Track, and from
NASA's Human Flight site http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/

All give essentially the same results in Orbitron, which are not
in sync with the announced contact schedule or Heavens-above.

1. Can anyone offer a clue as to what is wrong with what I'm doing?

2. What happened to the email updates of ISS KEPS we used to receive?
 (Those gave accurate predictions via Orbitron.)

3. What is a good source of updated ISS KEPS that will work?

Thanks for any help you can offer.


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