[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next] - [Date Index][Thread Index][Author Index]

FW: [cq-l] CQ News: Solar Update from NW7US





73 de N8AU, Jim in Raymore, MO

-----Original Message-----
From: CQ.Communications@unix2.sunserver.com
[mailto:CQ.Communications@unix2.sunserver.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 2003 4:23 PM
To: cq-l@sunserver.com
Subject: [cq-l] CQ News: Solar Update from NW7US

 From the CQ Newsroom...

CQ Propagation Editor Tomas Hood, NW7US, provides the following update on 
the unusual (historic) solar conditions of recent days:

>I have just finished a talk with Christopher Balch from the Space
Environment
>Center, NOAA, regarding the super flare from 1955Z, 4-XI-2003.  This flare
>saturated the instruments on the observing satellites for about 13 minutes,
>during the peak of the flare.  This has made an accurate measurement of the
>flare's intensity difficult.  The instruments stopped at X17.4.
>
>The scientists and engineers who designed the original sensor equipment 
>back in
>the 1970's had events that caused saturations at much lower levels.  They
>redesigned things to handle X17-class events, thinking that it would be 
>enough.
>This time, it was not.
>
>Since we do not have any accurate record of flare intensity prior to the 
>1970's,
>our perspective of this latest series of flares is somewhat 
>limited.  Certainly,
>X-class flares of this magnitude are not regular events.  But, they
certainly
>are not unheard of.  To pull out a rough estimate, but with very little
>confidence on this number, on how often we might see such activity, we
think
>this is something we could see every 20 to 40 years.
>
>Currently, as I write this, the Space Environment Center, who is the
official
>"last word" on what a flare's classification becomes, is finalizing their
>analysis on this super flare.  Chris has obtained two likely candidates: 
>Using a
>standard log-normal fit analysis, the flare was X25.  Using a result from
an
>individual from the University of Colorado, Boulder, who analyzed HESSI 
>data on
>the event ( http://hessi.ssl.berkeley.edu/ ), the flare was an X28.  The 
>SEC has
>a procedure that Chris is finalizing, and validating.  He will announce the
>final reading later today.  Most likely, this flare will be somewhere
between
>the X25 and X30 levels.
>
>Certainly, the geomagnetic storming of the last few weeks is one of the 
>highest
>in many years.  It is officially number six on the scale of intensity in
the
>last 30 years.  The two major sunspot groups, the number of flares, and 
>the CME
>activity makes this period the most active and intense of this solar 
>cycle.  We
>have witnessed a truely spectacular historical moment.
>
>What's coming down the line?  I usually base my forecasts on a 27-day solar
>rotation period.  What happens today in terms of geomagnetic activity is
>possibly what will occur 27 days from now.  Of course, sunspot and 
>coronoal hole
>activity might decline duing that rotation period.  The outlook is that in 
>about
>5 to 10 days, a sunspot group that had a lot of activity is going to 
>rotate back
>around and start to influence space weather.  But the big question is: Will
>these huge sunspot groups that just left us retain enough energy to last 
>the 27-
>day rotation, to deliver another period of extreme solar weather?
>
>NASA is planning to launch in November 2005 the "Stereo Mission" (
>http://stereo.jhuapl.edu/mission/overview/overview.html ), which will 
>place an
>observing space craft leading the Earth's orbit, and another space craft
>trailing the Earth, such that they will be able to see around the sun at 
>what is
>coming and what has went.  This certainly will become a major tool in our
>forecasting of space weather, and propagation.
>
>I will post my propagation forecast on http://prop.hfradio.org/ late today.
>
>73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
>--
>: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
>: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :

-----
You are subscribed to the CQ magazine newsletter mailing list, with news 
and information of interest to ham radio operators. To unsubscribe from 
this list, simply send an e-mail to listar@sunserver.com with the subject 
line: UNSUBSCRIBE CQ-L. To change your e-mail address, please unsubscribe 
as shown above (from your OLD address), then resubscribe by sending a 
message from your NEW address to listar@sunserver.com with the subject 
line: SUBSCRIBE CQ-L.



----
Sent via amsat-bb@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author.
Not an AMSAT member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program!
To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe amsat-bb" to Majordomo@amsat.org



AMSAT Top AMSAT Home