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RE: Take the survey - MEISSE REPLY -B-



Bob,
Thank you for your insightful posting... You are correct... With an in-tab
target of 400, you plunk off the easy ones with the mailed survey, get on
the phone and fill out the balance. We do it all the time and it IS
statically, very expectable..
The phrasing of the questions is critical mass. From my experience, you
don't ask about "which Bird to spend money on", you ask about their usage
habits, modes preferred, etc. Let the board, in conjunction with worldwide
AMSAT planning fill the sky with the proper birds to address those needs..
Our objective is to provide SERVICE to earthling Hams!!!  Not to forget the
science that we also are dedicated to...
Everyone please understand, the survey to which I refer is aimed at much
more than operational opinion. I think we need to KNOW who our constituency
is.  We should know this profile so we plan accordingly. If we see a
tremendous need for specific birds and we don't have builders, maybe we have
to just buy hardware since it is up to US to put the proper thing in the
air. On the demographic side, we need to see the ageing of our members. We
need to plan for serving them in older age. Limits do move in as we get up
in years... We need to see if we are attracting new young people and what
their usage preferences are. Are those different from the older members. How
do we balance that contrast....

Thanks for your input.
Gunther Meisse
W8GSM


-----Original Message-----
From: owner-AMSAT-BB@AMSAT.Org [mailto:owner-AMSAT-BB@AMSAT.Org]On
Behalf Of Bob Bruninga
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 9:53 PM
Cc: amsat-bb@AMSAT.Org
Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] Take the survey - MEISSE REPLY -


On Tue, 15 Jul 2003, Greg Wycoff wrote:

> WHY ARE YOU SO AFRADE OF THE TRUTH BOB,    you know playing darts is also
a
> random act. why dont we just put the issues on a dart board and throw
darts
> at it and see what we hit, or put the issues on a wheel and play the price
> is right.

No, you see I want the truth also.  And there are people a whole lot
smarter than I who know how to do surveys, and everyone one of them (who
are experts in the field of surveys) will tell you the same thing I am
telling you, that an "email survey" or Postal mail "survey" will get you
"lots of data", and it will tell you something, but it wont necessarily
be the "truth".

If you want what I think we both define as the "truth", you have to get a
statistically meaningful across the board data set with everyone in that
sample responding.  Then and only then do you get "truth" about what the
aggregate wants.  This means you have to take the randomly selected cross
section of say (maybe 400 users) and then you have to take hours, days,
weeks and intense effort to get all 400 of them to respond.  Then you hve
the truth.

Anyone who remembers the course on probability and statistics can tell us
what the proper sample size is for a base of 4000 members that will give
you something that is say 97% accurate representation of the whole.
Of course you could call every one of the 4000, but we cannot afford that.
And the results wouldnt be any different within a percentage point or so
of what the randonly selected N number would give.  THus, much more
affordable.

AH, and now then you hve to get to the proper phrasing of the question.
Not just DO YOU THINK WE SHOULD SPEND MONEY ON EAGLE?  But give them a
more realistic example of the kind of decision the Board has to make, and
that is weighing in ALL the other things on which the board has to spend
money and all of the other balancing it has to do with the people to
expend those dollars, and you end up with  document about an inch thick.

THe other posters have made it clear.  We elect BOD membors to make those
tough decisions for us, since they are attuned to all the facts in real
time... on which to make those big decisions...

> and if the typical return of all member survey is only 5% then that must
> mean only 5% gives a rats #$% to step up and be heard and the other 95%
dont
> care, I cant believe that 95% dont care enough to reply to a survey that
> involves their membership money and how it is spent (on what projects),
and
> by the way why would anyone have a AX to grid anyway, has any of the BoD's
> given anyone a reason to have a AX to grind.

Take a room full of HAMS and ask them if the sun is shinning or not, and
you will get argument and will not get 100% agreement!

> so you wish to only sample 200 out of 4000 members, boy glad we dont vote
> for our public officals in this manner.

Well we do.  Our congress of about 525 congressmen and one president make
probably 99.9999% of the decisions about where our tax money is spent and
I dont think  you or I have a bit to vote about it.  We elect the
congressmen and then let them decide.  ANd criticise them no end...

Just like we seem to see here...

Bob
> > >
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bob Bruninga" <bruninga@usna.edu>
> Cc: <amsat-bb@AMSAT.Org>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 5:43 PM
> Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] Take the survey - MEISSE REPLY -
>
>
> | On Tue, 15 Jul 2003, Greg Wycoff wrote:
> |
> | > A sampled survey will not tell the facts. a complete survey of ALL
> members
> | > is needed, I know that you will not get a complete return in the
issued
> | > survey, but if you only took a sampled survey you may be sampling
those
> who
> | > have no involvment in satellite communications or could care less as
how
> | > AMSAT is ran or the direction it is going.
> |
> | Ah, but since the typical return on an ALL MEMBER survey is 5%, that
> | means it only takes about a 5% minority with an AX to grind to totally
> | skew the results of an all member survey.
> |
> | > Why would you only want to know what a small % wants instead of what
the
> | > majority wants.
> |
> | Because that is the scientific method.  Randomly sampling and then
getting
> | near 100% on that sample is statistically sound.  Conversly, asking
> | everyone with an opinion to respond is unscientific, and only gets the
> | opinions of the verbal minority...
> |
> | Bob
> |
> |
> | ----
> | Sent via amsat-bb@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author.
> | Not an AMSAT member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program!
> | To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe amsat-bb" to Majordomo@amsat.org
> |
>
>
>

de WB4APR@amsat.org, Bob

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