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Probability of being heard?

I am planning on setting up a satellite station at our club's F.D site this 
weekend.  When things commence at 1800z on Saturday, AO-40 will be 8 degrees 
above the horizon (and falling) and have a squint angle of 5.7 (and rising), 
starting at MA-152 from our site in SW Washington.  I will be using an 
FT-736R with a Mirage D-3010 amp available, into a 20 element UHF RHCP yagi.  
Do I have a good chance at being heard on the downlink with this arrangement? 
  The next pass won't be until after midnight local time, and I won't be 
available to try it during that period.  Should I bother bringing the Mode-S 
downlink equipment along for this short period Saturday AM, or just stick to 
the other birds?  I usually uplink in mode L, but only have 10 watts on 23cm. 
 I was hoping that having the additional power available on UHF would give me 
some chance at the U/S2 transponder during this low elevation period.  I'll 
be trying Fuji 20 & 29, and will probably see if AO-10 is working, but it 
would involve additional work to include the Mode S stuff.  InstantTrack says 
this is orbit #756, which hopefully means RUDAK will be off. 

AMSAT #33491
will be on as W7DG from WWA
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