[amsat-bb] The future

["Peter Ellis VK1KEP" <prellis@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

In a recent space-related Internet article
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/time-01b.html
I saw this:

Predicting the Future
Scientist J. Richard Gott has discovered a way of predicting how long
something you are observing is likely to last. The idea is based on the
Copernican Principle -- the idea that your location in time and place is not
special. Gott discovered this idea in 1969 whilst looking at the Berlin
Wall, which he correctly predicted (with 50% confidence) would have a future
longevity of between 2-2/3 years and 24 years.
If you observe something at a non-special or random time there is a 50%
chance that it is in the middle two quarters of its period of existence. At
one extreme the future will be three times as long as the past; at the other
extreme the future is one third as long as the past. There is a 50% chance
you lie between these extremes so the future is between one third and 3
times as long as the past.
Gott has refined this theory to ensure that the prediction is 95% reliable,
the scientific standard, and has used it to predict everything from the
future longevity of the human race (5,100 years ­ 7.8 million years) to the
future longevity of the New York Times (3.8 years ­ 5,811 years) years.


Now, by my reckoning, that means that my house (built in 1969) should still
be there for from 7-66 years. My car (built in 1984) should last 5-48years,
in which case it IS worthwhile doing up the engine.

And, AO-40 was begun in the early 90s so it should be viable for 3-25 years!
THAT is why the team worked so hard for a 20+ year stable orbit!
It also suggests that AO-10 might still be going for a long while, say
6-50years!?



Peter R. Ellis
VK1KEP



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