[amsat-bb] SEC: UNCLASSIFIED - re: History of Spin Rate - AO-40

["Ellis, Peter R." <Peter.Ellis@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hello, all.

It occurred to me to extrapolate ('forecast') the spin rate based on the
data provided by Richard WC8J recently. Someone else has probably done this
already... 

Note that I have been selective (taken only from 11/26/00) and added two
data points (12/7/00 and 12/9/00, both 20:00) in order that Excel would have
a good go at using FORECAST for the Spin/Min.. You'll see that I had to put
in date-time pairs and that I chose 08:00 and 20:00 so they would stand out.
(Many values provided were around 20:00, and 08:00 is 12 hours different.)

It's also interesting to enter check the 'trend' on graphs, both for the
given data and including the inferred information. 

It became apparent that, using this method: 
a.	17/min was 'reasonable' (forecast to occur in the first week of
January), and
b.	it's forecast to increase further.

I note mention made by Peter Guelzow of a leak. 

Please feel free to make some sense of this. 

I will not accept flames for what I've done or what it may mean.

Best wishes,
Peter 
VK1KEP

*****

Date Time	Spin / min.
mm/dd/yy hh:mm	
11/26/00 9:54	5.2
11/26/00 11:07	5.4
11/27/00 9:34	6.0
11/27/00 20:41	5.8
11/28/00 9:13	6.0
11/28/00 20:18	6.0
11/29/00 10:39	6.2
11/29/00 19:55	6.0
11/30/00 11:39	6.6
11/30/00 19:32	6.2
12/1/00 11:31	6.6
12/1/00 18:31	6.4
12/2/00 12:04	6.6
12/2/00 18:28	6.6
12/3/00 11:20	7.6
12/3/00 17:32	7.6
12/4/00 12:09	7.9
12/4/00 17:02	7.9
12/5/00 11:52	7.9
12/5/00 17:23	7.9
12/6/00 12:27	8.2
12/6/00 16:55	7.9
12/7/00 12:32	8.8
12/7/00 20:00	9.0
12/8/00 12:30	9.5
12/8/00 21:00	9.5
12/9/00 12:52	9.9
12/9/00 20:00	9.5
12/10/00 13:45	9.5
12/10/00 20:42	9.5
12/11/00 8:00	9.90
12/11/00 20:00	10.06
12/12/00 8:00	10.24
12/12/00 20:00	10.44
12/13/00 8:00	10.63
12/13/00 20:00	10.82
12/14/00 8:00	11.00
12/14/00 20:00	11.19
12/15/00 8:00	11.36
12/15/00 20:00	11.56
12/16/00 8:00	11.73
12/16/00 20:00	11.90
12/17/00 8:00	12.06
12/17/00 20:00	12.20
12/18/00 8:00	12.33
12/18/00 20:00	12.51
12/19/00 8:00	12.69
12/19/00 20:00	12.87
12/20/00 8:00	13.06
12/20/00 20:00	13.22
12/21/00 8:00	13.38
12/21/00 20:00	13.53
12/22/00 8:00	13.66
12/22/00 20:00	13.82
12/23/00 8:00	13.99
12/23/00 20:00	14.18
12/24/00 8:00	14.37
12/24/00 20:00	14.58
12/25/00 8:00	14.76
12/25/00 20:00	14.93
12/26/00 8:00	15.08
12/26/00 20:00	15.24
12/27/00 8:00	15.41
12/27/00 20:00	15.57
12/28/00 8:00	15.74
12/28/00 20:00	15.90
12/29/00 8:00	16.07
12/29/00 20:00	16.24
12/30/00 8:00	16.41
12/30/00 20:00	16.57
12/31/00 8:00	16.74
12/31/00 20:00	16.91
1/1/01 8:00	17.09
1/1/01 20:00	17.26
1/2/01 8:00	17.43
1/2/01 20:00	17.60
1/3/01 8:00	17.77
1/3/01 20:00	17.93
1/4/01 8:00	18.10
1/4/01 20:00	18.28
1/5/01 8:00	18.45
1/5/01 20:00	18.62
1/6/01 8:00	18.79
1/6/01 20:00	18.96
1/7/01 8:00	19.12
1/7/01 20:00	19.29
1/8/01 8:00	19.45
1/8/01 20:00	19.62
1/9/01 8:00	19.79
1/9/01 20:00	19.96
1/10/01 8:00	20.13
1/10/01 20:00	20.30
1/11/01 8:00	20.47
1/11/01 20:00	20.64
1/12/01 8:00	20.81
1/12/01 20:00	20.98
1/13/01 8:00	21.15
1/13/01 20:00	21.32
1/14/01 8:00	21.49
1/14/01 20:00	21.66
1/15/01 8:00	21.82
1/15/01 20:00	21.99
1/16/01 8:00	22.16
1/16/01 20:00	22.33

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