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Re: Element(ary) analysis revisited



It would interesting in the extreme if those of you
who observed AOS/LOS times at your QTH's
compared the observed times with those predicted
by this element set since this set is ostensibly
done after the burn was complete and was done
by radar.    I believe they will probably agree quite
closely with observed but it will still be interesting to
get experimental verification of this.  NORAD is NOT
all that great at radar painting of objects that they do
not have a single clue where to find.  Please send the
results of your comparisons to me directly.  I will send
them to Ken, Phil, and anyone else that wants to
study the data.  If they agree, as I expect them to, we
have one more piece of strong evidence that nothing
massive happened.   It would REALLY be interesting
to see if we can talk NORAD into doing a several
second painting and determine the modulation rate
provided by the spinning of the spacecraft.  This would
possibly reveal if major outgassing of something occurred
at less than explosive rates ;-).

Bob

----- Original Message -----
From: "MCGWIER ROBERT" <rwmcgwier@home.com>
To: <amsat-bb@AMSAT.Org>
Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 2:00 PM
Subject: [amsat-bb] Element(ary) analysis revisited


> I have done further checking  and these elements DO
> agree BACK ON DEC. 11 to the accuracy reported
> by observers.  I would now say there is little evidence
> of a propulsive event of a large magnitude between
> then and now.  The error bounds back on the 11-th,
> and in set #8 could easily mask any propulsive
> event of smaller magnitude.   It is only natural that
> over time, the disparity between them would
> grow as the error in set #8 compounded itself.
>
> It is good that NORAD continues to paint the bird and
> about the right place.
>
> Bob
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ernandes" <n2wwd@mindspring.com>
> To: "AMSAT BBS" <amsat-bb@AMSAT.Org>
> Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 1:16 PM
> Subject: [amsat-bb] Updated AO-40 Keplerian elements from NORAD Data
>
>
> > NORAD / Space Command determined an accurate set of Keplerian elements
for
> > AMSAT OSCAR 40 using tracking data from their radars at Eglin AFB, FL
and
> > the Kwajalein atoll.  The tracking data has good time and geometric
> > dispersion, yielding high quality Keplerian elements.  Thus the
following
> > Keps supersede previous estimates:
> >
> > AO-40
> > 1 26609U 00072B   00354.78150463  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0   124
> > 2 26609   6.2479 237.0656 8128421 195.4843  97.8395  1.26834511   611
> >
> > Satellite: AO-40
> > Catalog number: 26609
> > Epoch time:      00354.78150463
> > Element set:      12
> > Inclination:        6.2479 deg
> > RA of node:       237.0656 deg
> > Eccentricity:    0.8128421
> > Arg of perigee:   195.4843 deg
> > Mean anomaly:      97.8395 deg
> > Mean motion:    1.26834511 rev/day
> > Decay rate:    0.00000e+00 rev/day^2
> > Epoch rev:              61
> > Checksum:              275
> >
> > 73, Ken Ernandes, N2WWD
> > n2wwd@amsat.org
> >
> >
> > ----
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> > To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe amsat-bb" to Majordomo@amsat.org
> >
>
> ----
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>

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