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Re: What to do IF we regain control of AO-40



At 08:05 AM 12/19/2000 , you wrote:
>on 12/19/00 6:38 AM, sco@sco-inc.com at sco@sco-inc.com wrote:
>
> > NO, your logic is flawed. If the ground controllers had to make 10 attempts
> > to open the valve when one (1) attempt would be the "norm" ... then the
> > failure rate is 9/10 or 90 percent. If it had opened properly on the 1st
> > attempt they would not have needed to make 9 more attempts to open it.
>
>No, that's incorrect!
>
>I doubt that they would have cycled it just once.  That is what John was
>saying.  It stuck once, we do know that.  But how many times did they issue
>the command until it became unstuck?  And once that happened, how many times
>did they continue to issue the command to make sure it didn't stick again?
>We don't know - only the control team does.  But if something sticks on me,
>I usually get it unstuck and then perform the action many times.  John was
>just using examples to show what might be happening.  You could be right -
>the failure rate could have been 90%.  But then again, John could be right
>too.

Ok your logic is good if the above is correct. What we don't know are the 
facts. We do know from what has been released that the valve did NOT work 
properly. Hence if it has failed even once (already) in flight that the 
odds are greater that it will not work properly the next time. A sticking 
valve in an engine usually does not fix itself ... does it? Now if the 
problem was associated with a small bur in the valve, the action of opening 
and closing it might have smoothed that down. Lets hope for the best.

W4SCO


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