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Major Solar Event, A0-40, button down your hatches!

Forwarded from QRP-L........

The sun has been EXTREMELY ACTIVE over the past day.

#1: 24NOV 0500UTC X2 FLARE  Shock wave:  912 km/sec +CME +PROTON EVENT
#2: 24NOV 1500UTC X2 FLARE  Shock wave: 1200 km/sec +CME +PROTON EVENT
#3: 24NOV 2200UTC X2 FLARE  Shock wave: 1916 km/sec +CME
#4: 25NOV 0100UTC M8 FLARE  Shock wave: still being determined

These MAJOR flares have come from region 9236, which is right smack on
the center of the sun, and a bit north of the solar equator.  This means
the millions of tons of solar mass ejected with the CME shockwaves is
heading DIRECTLY to the earth.  We will receive a direct, or very near
direct hit, from this activity.  Furthermore, region 9236 continues to
grow in magnetic complexity, meaning it is likely not done producing\
major flares.  

SUMMARY: We have FOUR CME's/shockwaves enroute to planet Earth right now
(and perhaps more if further flares are produced from this region).

There was an M-class flare late on 23 NOV that is expected to hit the
earth saturday evening in North America, triggering minor to major
geomagnetic storming.

The travel time from the sun to the earth is ESTIMATED at about 70% of
the shockwave of the CME as it leaves the sun, as listed above.  Using
70%, my calculations show the arrival times will be:

#1: 26NOV 1600UTC = SUN 26NOV 0900 MST About  650 km/sec = MINOR STORM
#2: 26NOV 1800UTC = SUN 26NOV 1100 MST About  850 km/sec = MAJOR STORM
#3: 27NOV 0400UTC = SUN 26NOV 2100 MST About 1400 km/sec = MAJOR STORM
                                                           TO SEVERE
#4: Not determined yet

AURORAL ACTIVITY will be strong when the first two flares arrive in the
dark regions of the earth ... basically Asia.

AURORAL ACTIVITY FOR NORTH AMERICA is expected to be strong when the X2
(#3) arrives around 9pm MST (11pm EST).  With the measured shockwave of
1916 km/sec of the CME, this suggests the arriving shockwave will be
1300-1400 kmk/sec.  This would be the strongest shockwave to hit the
earth this solar cycle if it maintains velocity.  This could trigger a
severe magnetic storm plus auroral well into the lower latitudes,
including the southern United States.  I will post updates of this
projection as more recent data becomes available.

But keep in mind, these were very energetic flares releasing speed-of-
light protons, meaning the velocity of the shockwaves may actually remain
quite high (higher than the 70% estimate), meaning they could impact the
earth several hours before that listed above.

HF PROPAGATION:  Right now ... solar flux is 197 and saturday's solar
flux will certainly exceed 200 following the effects of these flares.
The higher frequencies will support excellent propagation over the
weekend.  40M and below will experience some noise satuday evening due
to a coronal hole stream.

SUNDAY ... major to possible severe storm conditions will exist the
entire day and into monday.  The lower ham bands will be experiencing
very high noise levels, if not total black out conditions.  The higher
bands may remain in good shape, unless we get hit with a severe shockwave
and more proton activity, which will heavily ionize the D-layer and
cause difficult conditions 20M and above as well.

POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT is in progress due to the arrival of the
energetic protons from the first two X2 flares.  HF communications in
the higher latitudes, such as Canada and Alaska, is already difficult at
best, and will only get worse by sunday.

The above is a description of today's activity and an attempt to describe
the physical effects it will likely produce.  As usual, this is NOT a
prediction of the end of the world or anything ... just letting you know
when the bands will be good and likely bad.  Never let these events
keep you from TRYING the bands ... but at least you'll know what is
happening if you hear nothing :-)

Frankly, this is one of the most energetic periods of solar activity
we've seen this solar cycle, and the potential for some real excitement,
from HF blackoouts, some great auroral displays, to possible problems
with satellites and power grids does exist.  Some of this activity has
occured following todays RSGA daily report, so much of the intensity and
NOAA's estimate of arrival times has not yet been published.  I'll post
updates following tomorrows NOAA RSGA report release.

All the "numbers" are there for some interesting activity ... but we all
sadly know how sometimes the numbers are subject to different
interpretations, recounts, etc. leading to a questionable outcome :-)

Let's all hope for some crystal clear skies sunday night to observe
some hopeful great auroral activity.

72, Paul NA5N

> From: Ralf Sinning <DL3ZBA@t-online.de>
> To: amsat-bb@AMSAT.Org
> Subject: [amsat-bb] RAW-data telemetry realtime soundcard decoder
> Date: Saturday, November 25, 2000 7:51 AM
> Hello everybody !
> Just installed the programm for Phase 3 D (AO-40) Decoder from IZ8BLY
> http://iz8bly.sysonline.it/P3D/index.htm .
> I must say it works vy fine !
> Play with the clock synch attack factor in the advanced prferences...
> 73! Ralf - DL3ZBA
> JO41rf
> ----
> Via the amsat-bb mailing list at AMSAT.ORG courtesy of AMSAT-NA.
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