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Fw: [IMOSkywarn] NWS SOLAR STORM ADVISORY





--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Patrick Murphy <patrick.murphy@crmsg.crh.noaa.gov>
To: IMOSkywarn@egroups.com
Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 15:32:51 +0000
Subject: [IMOSkywarn] Space Weather
Message-ID: <39708423.FCA7702E@crmsg.crh.noaa.gov>

Severe Solar Radiation Storm (S4) in progress now
(1520z)...earth-directed coronal mass ejection to arrive later
today...geomagnetic storm to scale G4 possible...HF propagation to
become sporadic...clear skies tonight...good Aurora show
possible/likely? info below from newly re-designed Space Environment
Center website...www.sec.noaa.gov

possible G4 Effects...
Power systems: possible voltage stability problems, portions of grids
collapse and protective devices trip.

Spacecraft operations: experience surface charging and tracking
problems, orientation problems need corrections.

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF
radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours,
low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and the aurora seen as low as
in the tropics.


**** RADIATION STORM OCCURS , MAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED ****

A large, complex sunspot group has produced one of the largest solar
flares and associated radiation storms seen in recent years. The flare
peaked at 4:24 a.m. MDT (1024 UTC) on July 14 and resulted in a radio
blackout that reached R3 (strong) levels and a solar radiation storm
that reached S3 (strong) levels. The solar radiation storm, which
continues at the time of this advisory, is the largest observed since
October, 1989. Images from NASA's SOHO/LASCO spacecraft showed that a
large, fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) followed the flare and is
headed Earthward. NOAA space weather forecasters predict that the CME
will impact the Earth's magnetic field on Saturday afternoon and will
cause a geomagnetic storm that is expected to reach category G3 (strong)
to G4 (severe) levels. The radiation and geomagnetic storms are expected
to produce adverse effects on spacecraft operations, power systems,
high-frequency radio communications, and low-frequency navigation
signals. In addition, the geomagnetic storm is expected to produce
aurora displays that will be visible over much of the U.S.

The sunspot group responsible for this event will be visible from Earth
until it crosses the Sun's west limb on July 21 and more space weather
storms are possible until that time.


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