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WARNING: Potential MAJOR Geomagnetic Storm Warning




                  POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                        ISSUED: 05:50 UTC, 19 OCTOBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

USERS SUSCEPTIBLE to geomagnetic storms are encouraged to investigate
the software at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/swarm.html

(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  19 Oct (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  19 - 20 Oct

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR TO SEVERE

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  APPROX 24 TO 36 HOURS
            DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY:  APPROX 18 TO 24 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7-8
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  8-9

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6 - 7

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  STRONG MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD TO FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  POOR TO USELESS

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR TO SEVERE
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  20% 
PROBABLE SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
Coronal mass ejection related to a solar filament eruption.

      
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT   
EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT 
---------------------------------       
--------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 30 %        LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 40 %        MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 30 %        HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR-SEVERE
ACTIVE OR LESS :  0 %       POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR-SEVERE 

PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90%    
ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 60 - 
5
                   ----           ---------------

COMMENTS:

     A currently significant interplanetary disturbance is passing
through Earth's space environment. It contains some highly attractive 
conditions for producing periods of major to severe geomagnetic 
storming. The main phase of the disturbance has arrived and is 
expected to continue to influence activity for roughly the next 12 to 
18 hours. Thereafter, conditions may begin to abate.


Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things...

Gregory S. Williams
KE4HSM@ICX.NET
http://user.icx.net/~ke4hsm
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